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Is Minnesota leaning Clinton or Trump? Let’s take a look

We are just a couple weeks away from being able to vote in the presidential election (shout-out to early, no-excuse-needed absentee voting in Minnesota) – and a recent poll shows Minnesotans leaning pretty strongly toward one candidate.

Washington Post and Survey Monkey released results of a nationwide online poll Tuesday, asking nearly 75,000 Americans across all 50 states about who they would vote for right now.

The question: “If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?”

Hillary Clinton took 49 percent of the support in Minnesota, compared to 40 percent for Republican opponent Donald Trump – but that’s when those were the only two candidates listed.

If two minor parties are included (Gary Johnson with the Libertarian Party, and Jill Stein with the Green Party), the Democrat Clinton still came out ahead, but by a smaller margin.

In that case, 41 percent of Minnesota respondents said they’d vote for Clinton, with Trump at 34 percent. Johnson got 15 percent, and Stein picked up 5 percent.

A couple quick notes about the poll

They found people for it by plucking specific SurveyMonkey users out, and inviting them to take another survey. It was done from Aug. 9 through Sept. 1, and the final tally was weighted to match Census Bureau demographics for registered voter sin each state.

The Washington Post even notes that, in the past, they’ve generally avoided these types of surveys (called “non-probability Internet-based surveys”). FiveThirtyEight also says live interview polls have a better track record than online surveys, which have trouble reaching groups such as non-whites or young people.

But, the Post says, they’ve done digging into research of these online polls, and felt good about SurveyMonkey’s previous results.

What are other polls saying?

There aren’t a ton of Minnesota-only polls right now (and by that we mean, there’s only been one since the summer – an updated Ipsos poll).

FiveThirtyEight keeps track of all the polls, by state and nationally, and the most recent Ipsos results have Clinton with a 42-33 lead over Trump. The site gives Clinton a 77.2 percent chance of winning Minnesota’s 10 electoral college votes.

More on voting

The election is Nov. 8. Find resources and more political coverage at our sister site, GoVoteMN.com. You can also watch this video that’ll explain how to register to vote. Early and absentee voting (meaning you vote by mail) starts Sept. 23.

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