The big boy storm on its way to Minnesota is going to dump a bunch of precipitation. Whether it falls as snow, rain and/or freezing rain is the question.
According to the National Weather Service, showers and thunderstorms will develop Thursday into Thursday night – maybe bringing thunder as far north as Interstate 94 – before changing over to freezing rain and snow Friday into Saturday.
When that changeover occurs will impact snowfall totals.
The map in the NWS tweet below calls for 1-2 inches of liquid precipitation. If it all falls as rain it's just 1-2 inches of water. But the snow to liquid ratio would be much higher. More on that below.
The weather service, at this time, is calling for the highest chance of heavy snow in west-central Minnesota, across central Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin.
While the NWS still isn't discussing specific snowfall totals with this storm, The Weather Channel is, and they've got a map that paints a swath of 8-12 inches across west-central and central Minnesota.
Weather Underground was even more aggressive in its latest predictions (from Tuesday), putting a stripe of 18-24 inches across central Minnesota.
As Paul Douglas wrote in his weather blog, "central Minnesota seems to stand the best chance of shriek-worthy snow amounts, but MSP is not out of the woods just yet."
Check back for updates.