Monday could be a very active severe weather day in the Twin Cities and parts of southern Minnesota as a potent line of storms is expected to develop.
The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has placed the Twin Cities and parts of southeast Minnesota and portions of Wisconsin in an enhanced risk for severe storms. All modes of severe weather are possible, including tornadoes, but the main threat will be damaging winds from a possible derecho.
A derecho is a long-lived line of storms that produces severe wind gusts (in excess of 57 mph and sometimes exceeding 75-100 mph or more), and to qualify as a derecho the line of storms has to produce wind damage for a path of at least 250 miles.
The Storm Prediction Center says the storms should erupt during the late afternoon and evening hours, adding:
"Have upgraded to ENH risk for this possibility and a further upgrade may be necessary in later outlooks if this scenario appears likely. The linear/cluster mode should mitigate a greater tornado and hail risk. But given the degree of instability, brief tornadoes from embedded supercells or mesovorticies within the line are possible."
With the expected threat, the Storm Prediction Center has placed the core of the Twin Cities metro within the area where wind damage chances are highest.
Future radar simulations show storms firing in south-central Minnesota around 3 p.m. and then working their way east-northeast through the rest of the day.
Here's a look at the HRRR future radar from 3 p.m. to midnight. This is a simulation of what could unfold, not what will happen.
Here's a look at the NAM (North American Model) from 3 p.m. through midnight, showing a similar radar simulation.
We'll be sure to update the storm chances as watches and warnings are expected later in the day.