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Biden leads Trump in Minnesota 49% to 40% in KSTP poll

The KSTP/SurveyUSA poll also that Biden voters were far more likely to vote by mail.

A recent poll of Minnesota voters shows former Vice President Joe Biden ahead of Donald Trump, but gaps between city and rural voters are clear.

According to the poll by KSTP and SurveyUSA, Biden leads Trump 49% to 40% in Minnesota. The poll also examined the Senate race between Sen. Tina Smith and former Congressman Jason Lewis. Smith leads Lewis 47% to 36%.

The poll had a margin of error of 5.2%, and it should be noted the final KSTP poll in 2016 showed Hilary Clinton beating Trump by 49% to 39%. In reality, Clinton beat out Trump in Minnesota by just 1.5%. 

The poll was conducted from Sep. 4 to Sep. 7. 

Other key findings from the poll:

  • Biden is ahead 55% to Trump’s 34% in the Twin Cities and 48% to Trump’s 44% in southern Minnesota.
  • Trump leads Biden 61% to 37% in northeastern Minnesota and 48% to 29% in western Minnesota.
  • A vast majority of voters who will vote by mail say they will vote for Biden at 71% to 16% for Trump. Trump leads in in-person voters, at 59% of those voters to Biden's 32%.
  • The poll also found 7% of voters were undecided while 4% favored other candidates.
  • Biden leads slightly on the issues of the economy, with 45% of respondents saying Biden would be better on the economy and 43% saying Trump would be.
  • Of the respondents, 49% said Biden would keep them safer and 40% said Trump would keep them safer.
  • Biden has a stronger lead among women, with 54% responding they would vote for Biden and 36% responding they would vote for Trump. 
  • For the men polled, 45% said they would vote for Trump and 44% said they would vote for Biden. 

Trump and his campaign have made repeated statements about turning Minnesota red for the first time since 1972. 

Ivanka Trump, Vice President Mike Pence and Donald Trump Jr. have all made stops in Minnesota in recent weeks. Jill Biden also stopped in the Twin Cities Wednesday, while Biden's running mate Kamala Harris held a virtual event with Minnesota DFL leaders.

The differential in voting based on mail voters and in-person voters could have an impact on the initial results on Election Night, with election officials nationwide having warned that the results in particularly close races may not be known for several days as absentee ballots arrive and are counted.

A record number of people expected to vote by mail this year due to COVID-19.

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