Minnesota below high risk threshold in 4 of 5 key COVID metrics

A long time coming...
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Minnesota has entered positive territory in four of five key metrics for measuring the risk of the coronavirus pandemic in the state. 

The five key metrics are all based on a 7-day rolling average. They are:

  • Test positivity rate.
  • Daily new cases per 100,000 residents.
  • Weekly COVID tests per 10,000 residents.
  • New COVID hospitalizations per 100,000 residents.
  • Percentage of cases with no known exposure (community spread).

Test positivity rate

Minnesota's test positivity rate has dipped to 3.1%, the lowest it has been since it was at 3.3% in mid-June 2020 – and the lowest it has been since the Minnesota Department of Health began tracking the rate in late March 2020. 

This checks out as being below the high risk threshold.  

Daily new cases per 100,000 residents

This metric has been rapidly dropping below the high risk range the health department monitors. 

Anything over 10 new cases per 100,000 residents (on a 7-day rolling average) is considered high risk for transmission. Through May 25, the rate is at 7.8 cases, though because there is a lag time in reporting the rate should continue to plummet as cases have steadily dropped over the past week. 

The rate reached 38.8 cases per 100,000 residents on April 11, with the high point in the pandemic coming in mid-November, when the state reported approximately 125 cases per 100,000 residents. 

At 7.8, it's the lowest Minnesota has been since June 24, 2020. 

Weekly COVID tests per 10,000 residents

With less disease circulating in Minnesota, there has been a steady decline in the number of people getting tested. Through May 25, the state is averaging 226.8 tests per 10,000 residents. The state has aimed to maintain at least 200 tests per 10,000 residents to effectively monitor disease transmission. 

New COVID hospital admissions per 100,000 residents 

Minnesota is averaging 6.6 COVID hospital admissions per 100,000 residents (as of May 25), though the number continues to shrink after reaching 14.7 during the April surge. The high point during the pandemic was 37.2 in mid-November 2020. 

Anything over 8 hospital admissions per 100,000 residents is considered high risk. 

% of cases with no known exposure (community spread)

Here lies the one out-of-control metric that has continued to rise since the beginning of the pandemic. According to health department data, 44.8% of all new cases are for patients who cannot determine where they contracted the virus (that's community spread). 

Community spread over 30% is deemed high risk, and Minnesota has been near or above the 30% threshold since July 2020. 

Find the latest Minnesota COVID-19 news here

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