DFL challenger Rick Nolan has moved ahead of freshman Republican Chip Cravaack 50 percent to 43 percent, according to a new Star Tribune poll of likely voters in the Eighth Congressional District.
Previous polls showed the race was closer, a statistical dead head. A KSTP/SurveyUSA poll just a few weeks ago showed Nolan up just 1 point with 9 percent undecided and a margin of error of 4.2 percent.
The poll has drawn "hoots of incredulity," MinnPost's David Brauer writes. He says the poll seems like an outlier, and its methodology raises a few red flags.
In other news, Nolan has decided to take a shot at Cravaack for his family's move to New Hampshire, the Associated Press reports. He has a new TV ad about it, although he has said he would not hit Cravaack on that issue. (Cravaack owns a house in the district, but his wife and sons moved when she got a new job last year.)
Good news for the incumbent: The Duluth News Tribune has endorsed Cravaack, just as the newspaper did in 2010.
A top House Democrat, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Rep. Steve Israel, was in Minnesota over the weekend to help Nolan and several other Democrats raise campaign cash, MPR reported. Israel says that Nolan is poised to win.
The race is one of the nation's most expensive, and one of the nation's top draws for money from outside groups.