Despite strong support throughout Greater Minnesota, and multiple visits to the state by President Donald Trump, former Vice President Joe Biden is hanging on to his lead here.
That's the conclusion of a new joint poll by Star Tribune, KARE 11 and MPR, which found Biden leading Trump by six points among likely voters in Minnesota, 48 to 42 percent.
What about the rest? Eight percent fell into the "undecided" column, while "other" accounted for the remaining respondents.
As the Star Tribune notes, Biden's lead is largely "propelled by strong support among women and younger voters," with his strongest leads showing up in Hennepin and Ramsey counties — the most populous in Minnesota.
Meanwhile, the poll found that Trump holds "significant leads" in northern and southern Minnesota and "a smaller edge" in the other Twin Cities counties.
So what reason do Minnesota voters give for backing one candidate over the other?
Per MPR's summary of the data, the poll found the economy and jobs "the most influential issue" for Trump voters, with law and order coming in second.
For Biden voters, racial justice and equity were the priority, "followed by the coronavirus and health care," MPR says.
Nationally, the numbers also largely skew towards Biden, with a RealClearPolitics average of the polls finding the Democrat with a seven-point lead. Meanwhile, election forecasts from both The Economist and FiveThirtyEight mark Biden as "very likely" to win and "favored to win," respectively.
However, it's important to note that national polling trends can prove wrong on Election Day, as they did in 2016 when Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton — who had largely been forecasted to win the presidency.
Here's a deep dive from Pew Research on why the polls were seemingly far off that year.