Star Tribune poll spells bad news for President Trump in Minnesota

The president had vowed to win Minnesota in his most recent rally.
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President Donald Trump and his campaign team have made Minnesota a serious target to flip Red in the 2020 presidential election, but it looks like he'll have a hard time doing so.

The results of the latest poll commissioned by the Star Tribune pegs Trump as trailing all of the leading Democratic candidates for the presidential nomination, with the poll results taken between Oct. 14-16, a few days after his rally at Target Center.

That includes a 12-point lead for Joe Biden (50-38), an 11-point lead for Elizabeth Warren (51-40) and a 9-point lead for Bernie Sanders (49-40).

Unsurprisingly, the candidate with the largest lead over Trump is Amy Klobuchar with a 55-38 margin. You can read more breakdown from the survey of 800 Minnesota registered voters (which has a 3.5 percent margin of error, here courtesy of the Strib.

It paints a gloomy picture of Trump's efforts to win a state he lost by just 1.5 percentage points in 2016 to Hillary Clinton. Since his election, Trump hasn't had net approval in Minnesota since March 2017, per Morning Consult.

It currently stands at -11 in Minnesota, though this is improved from the low of -19 seen this January.

One of the reasons Trump could struggle to flip Democratic states in 2020 is the change in perceptions regarding his political leanings.

As this FiveThirtyEight analysis from earlier this year found, voters prior to the 2016 election felt that Trump was a more moderate Republican compared to most previous GOP presidents in recent history, which might have helped him pick up more swing voters and independents.

However, since then, more voters now see him as having moved increasingly to the right, seeing his reign as president focused on things like restricting immigration, granting tax cuts to the wealthy, becoming "hawkish" on foreign policy, as opposed to focusing on more moderate policy such as infrastructure spending.

Poll a boost for Klobuchar

The poll meanwhile is a good talking point for Klobuchar, one of whose key campaign talking points has been her ability to win over otherwise Republican districts.

The Minnesota senator won re-election last year by a landslide, picking up many counties that Trump won in 2016 and other Democratic candidates last year failed to secure.

Klobuchar was buoyed in Iowa last week by getting endorsements from two respected Iowa legislators, Sen. Liz Mathis and Rep. Andy McKean, the latter of whom was the longest serving GOP member in the history of the Iowa Legislature, until he switched to the Democratic Party in April.

Meanwhile, a focus group of Iowa voters praised Klobuchar for her performance in last week's Democratic debate, putting her alongside Warren as among the most memorable performers, according to This Week.

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The poll was a collaboration between Star Tribune, KARE 11 and MPR.