Skip to main content

Twins Daily: What makes Luis Arraez so good and how can he repeat his excellence in 2020?

Arraez burst onto the MLB scene as an unexpected tough out in 2019.
Luis Arraez

At least some regression is expected after the Twins posted a ridiculous .270/.338/.494 (.832) line in 2019. It is likely that the overall offensive production will generally decrease as the baseball should be de-juiced and Nelson Cruz will be a year older. On-base wizard Luis Arraez will hit more than four homers, but do his peripherals show concern for regression in other areas?

Luis Arraez was one of many breakouts for the Twins in 2019. Arraez ranked as the No.15 prospect in the Twins system on MLB Pipeline before the season. There was no doubt Arraez could hit, but his questionable athleticism and lack of power hampered his upside as a prospect. These stats say it all about how he fared in his first season in the big leagues:

Arraez was called up in May and became nothing short of a marvel at the plate. His zone contact percentage was a pristine 94%, almost 11% higher than league average. His chase rate was well below average at 24.3%. Arraez made contact on 87.4% of pitches outside the zone, nearly 30% more than the average player. Arraez struck out just 7.9% of the time, ranking in the top 1% in MLB. It looks like the Twins have found an unlikely cornerstone piece. Arraez is a catalyst and a nightmare for an opposing pitcher.

Arraez got ahead in 49% of counts, hitting .398/.497/.586 (1.083) in 163 tries after being up 1-0. When down 0-1, Arraez hit a pedestrian .291/.327/.342 (.669). When ahead in the count, he hit .448/.585/.676 (1.261) compared to .252/.252/.291 (.544) when behind.

When controlling the count, pitchers had the luxury of shying away from the fastball, a pitch that Arraez hit to the tune of .364. Arraez whiffed on just 5.9% of fastballs but 12.5% of off-speed and breaking pitches. On off-speed and breaking pitches, Arraez had expected batting averages of .248 and .256, respectively. On the AL Central clinching night, Luis Arraez defied his Statcast trend on this 1-1 curveball from Drew VerHagen:

Arraez hit .334/.399/.439 (.838) with a .355 BABIP in 92 games. In August, Arraez saw his BABIP lowered to a much more realistic .310. His monthly production responded as he hit .293/.350/.380 (.730) in 103 plate appearances. This is eerily close to the .286/.332/.395 (.727) line that Statcast expected from him this year.

Arraez was coined as “La Regadera” (The Sprinkler) for his ability to spray hits all over the field. Arraez loves to push the ball, owning a 36.7% opposite field rate. Looking at his wOBA chart, he seems to have an eye for outside pitches. Arraez struggled with pitches located on the inner half, but crushed most pitches away:


Pitchers will be adjusting to the surging sophomore in 2020. The strike zone will hopefully be around the same size (robot umps, please!), and Arraez can absolutely continue his production if he maintains elite plate discipline. This is a tall task for a young gun, but Arraez has been seemingly unfazed thus far.

Getting ahead in the count and forcing fastballs is key for most hitters, but Arraez showed that this will be especially important moving forward.

For much more on Luis Arraez and his amazing campaign:

This story originally appeared at Twins Daily and was re-shared through a collaboration with Bring Me The News

Next Up


Ticket details released for 5-week run of 'Hamilton' in Minneapolis

The tour of the production has been delayed twice due to the pandemic.


Minnesota Board of Pharmacy files lawsuit against 3 THC edible retailers

The board has received 46 complaints in the past four months regarding the products.

Screen Shot 2022-12-05 at 2.53.55 PM

ATF now investigating fire at Lyndale Avenue apartment building

It was the second fire at a vacant building owned by the same landlord that was being used by squatters in the past few months.


Let the good times roll

Minnesota Roller Derby is back!


Beloved restaurant in southeastern MN to close after 40 years

A final night of celebrations is scheduled for Dec. 17.


MN town shelves ordinance allowing residents to sue abortion providers

Attorney General Keith Ellison advised the town to not go forward with the ordinance.

Spring Street Tavern

Man shot dead inside Minneapolis tavern is identified

The suspect is being held on probable cause murder.

Red Hot Chili Peppers

Red Hot Chili Peppers, The Strokes to play U.S. Bank Stadium in 2023

The Strokes will provide support along with King Princess.

Mall of America exterior Tyler Vigen Wikimedia COmmons

Settlement reached between MOA, family of boy thrown from balcony

The boy suffered multiple injuries that required several surgeries.

Pixabay - police crime tape do not cross stock

Body found in burned out car near Bird Island

The Renville County Sheriff's Office is investigating.


Luis Arraez

Why Luis Arraez deserves to start for the 2020 Twins

Twins Daily looks at the plate discipline that makes Arraez a tough out.

Luis Arraez

5 candidates to hit leadoff for the Twins in 2020?

The Twins have a handful of really good options.

Luis Arraez

What happens to the Twins after Luis Arraez's injury?

While the injury looked more serious than a sprained ankle that the team would later announce it to be, it leaves a hole in the Twins' lineup.

Trevor May

3 reasons why the Twins bullpen will be dominant in 2020

Twins Daily explains just how good the bullpen could be in 2020.

Miguel Sano

Twins Daily: Who is ready for stardom in 2020?

Three players who were good in 2019 stand out as potential stars.

Josh Donaldson

Twins need to make a splash and sign Josh Donaldson

Twins Daily explains why Donaldson would be a huge addition.

Jorge Polanco

Which Twins are most likely to regress in 2020?

Twins Daily explains why some big hitters could have drops in production next season.