Weather MN

    Severe storms possible (if the sun comes out) in central Minnesota on Saturday

    By Joe Nelson | September 21, 2019

    After severe storms dumped 4-8 inches of rain in eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota overnight, the next round of potentially damaging storms is further east into Minnesota.

    The Storm Prediction Center's (SPC) severe weather outlook for Saturday (issued at 7:48 a.m.) includes a slight risk from the Canadian border down through central Minnesota to about the Twin Cities.

    Screen Shot 2019-09-21 at 7.59.54 AM

    The key to any storms reaching severe levels today will be the sun. If morning rain and clouds give way to some sunshine, then the chances for severe weather increase. If it stays cloudy, then the severe threat is lower, according to the SPC.

    Any storms that reach severe levels will be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two. The tornado threat, just a 5% chance, is centered around east-central Minnesota.

    Screen Shot 2019-09-21 at 8.01.00 AM

    Here's a look at the simulated future radar from the 8 a.m. run of the HRRR model (GIF might not load in all browsers). It shows storms firing west of the Twin Cities (near Stearns and Meeker counties) in the early afternoon and then moving east-northeast in the slight risk area.

    hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_fh5-16

    The 11:30 a.m. SPC outlook should provide a little better handle on what to expect today, so check this blog for update around noon.