Threat of severe weather returns to Minnesota for 2 days

By: Joe Nelson – May 18, 2022

After a brief break from last week's onslaught of severe weather there could be more severe storms Wednesday and Thursday in Minnesota.

"A few storms are possible north of I-94 this afternoon and evening, with a better chance at some stronger storms arriving tomorrow by late afternoon," says the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities.

While the chance for rain and storms is higher north of I-94 on Wednesday afternoon, the severe threat does include the Twin Cities metro area. And some of the models are picking up on that chance, showing potential for storms to move through or very near the Twin Cities.

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Here's the HRRR model showing what could happened between 1 p.m. and 10 p.m.

The weather service is expecting a few severe storms, but nothing widespread like Minnesota had last week. The main threats with Wednesday's storms are large hail and strong winds.

Thursday severe weather threat

The main hazards with Thursday's storms will again be large hail and damaging winds, but the NWS says a tornado or two is possible if supercells can remain isolated before forming a cluster or line segment with other cells.

The big question for Thursday is how far north the warm front lifts into Minnesota, as locations along and south of the front will have the best chance for severe storms.

The radar simulations we'll show you below are definitely going to change between now and Thursday afternoon, but they provide a decent look at what might happen.

HRRR model starting at 3 p.m. Thursday:

NAM 3KM model from 2 p.m. Thursday to noon Friday:

Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard will provide an update later Wednesday, and then of course again on Thursday. Check the Weather MN blog for updates.