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2 chances for heavy rain, storms in southern Minnesota through Monday

The first chance is late Friday into Saturday morning.

After a couple of gorgeous days in Minnesota, a more active weather pattern is settling in and it'll set the stage for heavy rain and storm chances. 

Here's what the Twin Cities is most surrounding areas are looking at over the next handful of days. 

  • Friday: 82 and sunny, calm winds. 
  • Saturday: Heavy rain and thunder the first half of the day. Temps in the 70s. 
  • Sunday: 82 and sunny, calm winds.
  • Monday: Highs near 80 with potential for heavy rain and storms. 
  • Tuesday: 75 and sunny.  

The heavy rain threat exists in southern Minnesota for very late Friday night into Saturday morning, with the best chance for heavy rain and thunder in southwest parts of the state. 

Here's a look at the simulated future radar from the NAM 3KM model, showing showers and storms moving out of South Dakota into western Minnesota after dinner Friday, and working across southern Minnesota during the overnight and morning hours.

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh18-39

It's possible that one or two severe thunderstorm warnings are issued in western Minnesota Friday night, but the overall severe threat is greater in South Dakota. 

"This area of precipitation will continue to expand southeast across southern Minnesota during the overnight hours," says the National Weather Service. "By Saturday morning, most of central, and southern Minnesota have a chance of showers and thunderstorms, with the best chance remaining across west central, southwest, and south central Minnesota."

After a spectacular Sunday, the next chance for showers and storms arrives Monday. Again, there will be plenty of moisture in the atmosphere to set the stage for excessive rainfall. 

It's too early for the NWS to pinpoint where the storms will be located, but the GFS model shows widespread precipitation in Minnesota, with the bullseye currently over the southern half of the state. 

gfs_ref_frzn_ncus_fh66-84

Don't take the radar simulation as gospel. The storm track will undoubtedly change between now and when it arrives Monday, so check back with the Weather MN blog for updates over the weekend and again on Monday morning. 

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