Skip to main content

About Minnesota's chances of a statewide white Christmas...

More snow in October than December? It appears so.

If you're dreaming of a white Christmas and you live in Minnesota, there appears to be a pretty good chance your dream won't come true this year. It only takes an inch of snow on the ground to count as a white Christmas, but good luck finding that much snow in most of the state. 

The Friday-Saturday storm that has been much-discussed? It's still on track to go south of Minnesota, delivering a healthy blow of snow to Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. For Minnesota snow-lovers, the European model's snowfall projection for the Friday-Saturday storm is depressing to look at. 

sn10_acc.us_mw (1)

Overall, it's been bone-dry in Minnesota. To think that October might end up being snowier than November and December is crazy. The Twin Cities, fueled by that Oct. 20 storm, picked up 9.3 inches of snow in October. The metro got 8.8 inches of snow in November, but almost all of it falling Nov. 10-12. 

Check this stat out from the National Weather Service

"November 12 was the last day the Twin Cities saw an inch or more of snowfall. Since then we've had a total of 0.7". This is the 11th lowest amount of snow for this period (11/13-12/09) on record, and the least since 2006 (0.2"). We don't see any snow in the near future." 

That's brutal considering December is the second snowiest month on average (behind January) in the Twin Cities. While there is potential for snow early next week, the weather service is already saying it'll likely be light snow at best and that's only if the storm system that moves through can overcome dry air. 

"One can not rule out a rogue clipper during periods of northwest flow, but no impactful systems look likely through next week," the Twin Cities office of the NWS said in its Thursday morning forecast discussion. 

Novak Weather has been watching the long-range models closely, and he believes there might be more true winter weather on the way for Minnesota by the end of December. 

On the latest episode of the Way Over Our Heads podcast, climatologist Kenny Blumenfeld said "the chance of a statewide white Christmas is pretty low right now," noting that "we just don't have enough cold air in place." 

According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), the next 10 days or so should bring near-normal temperatures to Minnesota. But looking out further, the temperature forecast for Dec. 17-23 already has a 60% chance of being above normal. (1)

Per Blumenfeld, there is generally about a 75-80% chance of a white Christmas in the Twin Cities, so we're definitely going against the grain in 2020 (as if you didn't know that already). 

Next Up

Governor Tim Walz

Walz, DFL, GOP reach agreement on state surplus spending

The framework deal includes spending on education, health care, human services and public safety, as well as tax cuts.

Harriet Island flooding, St. Paul

St. Paul to close road in anticipation of Mississippi River flooding

River levels are expected to rise through the week.

Michael Davis

Former Mormon church leader convicted of sexually assaulting boy, 13

It emerged that the church leader was a registered sex offender.

Screen Shot 2020-08-14 at 6.45.53 PM

Lost 1-year-old reunited with parents in Brooklyn Park

The girl was found by a concerned citizen around 7:30 p.m. Sunday.

Screen Shot 2020-12-27 at 8.33.49 AM

For 2nd time, Minnesota farm devastated by deadly fire

Around 1,000 goats and a litter of puppies were killed when a barn caught fire on Friday.


Fleeing suspect crashes, killing innocent driver in Brooklyn Park

The suspect fled police in Osseo and was going south on County Road 81.

1497 S Ferry St, Anoka, MN 55303, United States - August 2021

Body found tangled with debris in the Mississippi River

The individual's name has not yet been released.

Northtown Mall Carnival

Around 100 kids run from carnival fight into Northtown Mall

Police say a large fight was happening on the ferris wheel before kids fled into the mall.

Screen Shot 2021-05-27 at 9.29.03 AM

Former state senator Scott Jensen endorsed by GOP for governor

Jensen beat to multiple other hopefuls for the endorsement at Saturday's convention.


NWS already monitoring Thursday for severe weather in MN

Monday-Wednesday should be fantastic weather in Minnesota.


Body of missing Mankato woman believed to have been found

A canoer found the body in a swamp near Eagle Lake Friday.


white Christmas

What are Minnesota's chances of a white Christmas this year?

The Twin Cities averages a white Christmas about 3 out of every 4 years.

Will warmup threaten chances for a white Christmas?

Another cold start to the week but warmer days are ahead.

What are our chances of having a white Christmas?

Time to mentally prepare yourself for a lot of grey and brown colors?

Light rain washing away Twin Cities' chances of a white Christmas

There could be big travel impacts with a storm system arriving next week.

Boring weather pattern could get more exciting Christmas week

There might be some festive snow in the forecast.

Christmas lights

Weather looks pretty good for Christmas Day in Minnesota

Maybe some light snow or mixed precipitation for some.