Another winter storm is poised to move through the region on Thursday and the Twin Cities metro area is located right on the edge of where accumulating snow chances currently exist.
According to the National Weather Service, the metro area and parts of eastern Minnesota have at least a 40% chance of getting 2-plus inches of snow, though a lower chance of picking up more than 4 inches. More specifically, the weather service says it appears "likely" that areas east of Interstate 35 will get at least 2 inches of fresh snow. Anywhere west of Interstate 35 and all bets are off.
Tuesday's forecast discussion from the Twin Cities office of the NWS explains that model guidance is hinting at up to 3 inches for the Twin Cities and 5 inches just east in Eau Claire, Wisconsin, with amounts ramping up deeper into Wisconsin.
Here's a look at the latest NAM computer model simulation, which shows the system basically clipping southeast Minnesota.
The NAM's guidance is almost identical to the European model, which suggests the Twin Cities could easily be left with nothing more than a dusting.
The American model is also on board with the Twin Cities being on the edge of the accumulation zone.
The storm system still has two days to figure itself out, so the timing, track and intensity all have ample time to wobble and potentially change the forecast entirely for locations currently on the edge of the action.
Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to drop through the day Thursday and deliver the coldest air of the winter through early next week. The chunk of polar vortex Minnesota is set to be on the receiving end of will see wind chill values as cold as -25F to -35F Sunday and Monday mornings, according to the NWS.
This is fitting seeing as Punxsutawney Phil, the famous groundhog prognosticator, saw his shadow Tuesday morning, declaring six more weeks of winter.