After damaging storms and a possible tornado tore through the Twin Cities metro area Saturday night, another round of severe weather is possible Sunday night.
"Storms are expected to develop late this afternoon over central Minnesota. These storms should quickly form into one or more lines of storms that will move into western Wisconsin this evening," says the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.
All types of severe weather will possible: large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
The best chance for tornadoes large hail will be with cells that can remain isolated because once storms converge into a line the more significant threat will become damaging winds. That puts central Minnesota in the crosshairs for some big-time hail and potential tornadoes.
From NOAA's Storm Prediction Center:
"The most favorable parameter space for supercells will be over MN, and these may produce significant/2+ inch hail relatively early in the overall convective cycle. Sporadic damaging to severe gusts are expected, along with the threat of tornadoes from any sustained supercells or line-embedded mesocirculations."
Here’s the HRRR future radar for 2 p.m. through 5 a.m. If accurate, the metro might not get hit.
The NAM 3KM doesn’t keep the southern extent of storms capped, and this simulation would extend the severe threat further south than the HRRR suggests.
It’s going to be warm - forecast high of 85 in the metro - with dew points rising into the 70s. Here’s what the dew points could be at 7 p.m.
Timing will favor after dark in the metro and east-central Minnesota into Wisconsin, while central Minnesota could get hit before sunset.