More severe storms are possible across Minnesota Thursday, marking the third day this week where large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are possible amid an unusually warm and humid early May weather pattern.
The June- or July-like weather will bring steamy conditions to the Upper Midwest, with Minneapolis' record high for May 12 of 90 degrees potentially being broken. With dew points in the 60s and 70s, the heat index will rise well into the 90s, serving as plenty of fuel for more robust thunderstorm development.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued a level 4 of 5 moderate risk for a slice of western Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. Tornadoes, damaging winds of hurricane force (75+ mph) and hail the size of baseballs will be possible, according to the SPC.
This time around, however, the Twin Cities might be spared as the worst of the storms are expected to take place in the Dakotas and western Minnesota. According to the National Weather Service, a severe line of storms should weaken as it approaches central and eastern Minnesota.
"This weakening trend seems supported by nearly all high-res model guidance. Thus, do not expect the widespread severe wind event that was experienced Wednesday evening across the Twin Cities and surrounding areas, and expect that most severe weather this time should remain focused west of US Highway 71," the National Weather Service says.
US Highway 71 is a north/south highway that runs from northern Minnesota to southern Minnesota. Think of a line from Bemidji to Windom.
Here's the HRRR model showing possible radar trends today. It begins with the morning storms across central Minnesota weakening by around lunchtime, and then a new round of storms firing in Nebraska and South Dakota that race into Minnesota.
It is going to be extremely muggy. The HRRR is forecasting dew points in the mid-70s along a warm front that will be stationed across central Minnesota. The yellows in the GIF below are dew points in the 60s, with 70s represented by the orange.
We'll have the storm situation covered throughout the day, including updates from meteorologist Sven Sundgaard.