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Computer models paint picture of stormy soaker in southern Minnesota

It looks like it'll be a very wet next 36 hours.

The first wave of heavy showers and storms moved through southern Minnesota overnight, and that's just the beginning as additional storms are forecast to plow through Minnesota over the next 36 hours. 

The rest of Wednesday will actually dry out before more heavy storms, some of them possibly severe, develop late Wednesday night and then bring buckets of rain overnight and into the day Thursday. 

One of the big remaining questions for tonight is where the heaviest rain will fall. According to the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities, it'll likely either be on a line from approximately Redwood Falls through the Twin Cities, or closer to the Minnesota-Iowa border. 

It all depends on how far north a warm front lifts, as it's currently situated in northern Iowa. 

Severe storms are possible after midnight, but the weather service says the better chance for severe weather will be Thursday when a cold front sweeps through, bringing another round of storms to Minnesota. 

Here's the simulated future radar from the NAM 3KM model (GIF might not load in all browsers). The simulation is from 6 p.m. Wednesday through 12 a.m. Friday. You can see the explosive rainmakers develop late Wednesday and push through Minnesota overnight, then another line of storms develops Thursday afternoon as the cold front moves through the region. 


The computer models suggest widespread totals of 1-3 inches of rain (locally higher amounts) over the next 36 hours, and that's in addition to the 1-2 inches that fell across southern Minnesota overnight. 

Here's the severe weather threat for the nocturnal storms Wednesday night/Thursday morning. 


Thursday's severe threat will likely be dependent on how fast the overnight storms exit the region. If it's still raining around noon, the odds of any really strong storms developing decreases significantly. 

Friday will be cooler and windy with highs in the 60s, followed by a really nice weekend with sunshine and temps in the 70s to near 80 on Sunday. 

A return to summer-like weather is on deck, with temps in the mid-to-upper 80s and even some 90-degree days possible next week. 

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