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Severe thunderstorm warning issued for southern Twin Cities

Storms have been firing across the south metro.
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UPDATE 1:45 P.M.

A severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for cities in the southern Twin Cities metro.

The National Weather Service says that the storm could bring 60-mph winds and penny-sized hail to suburban cities including Apple Valley, Lakeville, and Prior Lake.

The storm system has been making its way northeast, having earlier passed through the Belle Plaine and Norwood Young America area.

Original story

Just in time for the weekend, the heat and humidity will return in a big way to Minnesota and with it comes the chance for severe storms across southern parts of the state. 

Storms should be isolated in nature, but any that do develop Friday afternoon have enough instability in the atmosphere to become severe.

"Any storms developing within this environment from WI into southern MN will likely become severe with potential for at least a couple of supercells capable of large hail and damaging wind," the Storm Prediction Center says. 

Some have fired up earlier expected, with a severe thunderstorm warning issued for an area of southeast Minnesota including Belle Plaine until 1:15 p.m., which could eventually make its way to the southern Twin Cities metro.

The SPC has southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, under a marginal risk for severe weather. It's the lowest of the SPC's 5-level severe index, meaning some nasty storms are possible but they'll be isolated. 

Screen Shot 2019-07-12 at 8.18.44 AM

According to the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities, there is a better chance of storms developing in Wisconsin than in southern Minnesota, and that appears to be what the computer models are picking up on as well. 

A Friday morning run of the HRRR model (GIF may not load in all browsers) has one apparent supercell developing in southwest Minnesota around 6-7 p.m. Again, this is a simulation of what could happen, so just because the simulation shows only one cell, others could develop anywhere in and around the marginal risk area.  

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_fh6-16 (1)

Meanwhile, temps will rise into the upper 80s with a 90 here or there possible Friday. 

Humidity will be high and the dewpoint will rise close to 70, making for a very sticky day. And you might as well get used to it, because at least a week's worth of similar hot and humid days in the forecast, with chances of storms (not washouts) for most of next week. 

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