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Heavy rain, flooding, severe storms all possible through Thursday in Minnesota

Folks in southern Minnesota could pick up ridiculous rain totals.
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A soggy Monday was just the start of what's going to be a very wet week in Minnesota. If you want to get outside and enjoy what's left of summer, Tuesday is the day to do it as temps will rise to around 80 degrees and the sun will be out. 

If the temp reaches 80 in the Twin Cities, it'll be the first time since Aug. 20. 

You'll also notice a bump up in humidity, and that's sort of a preview for what's coming late Tuesday night into Wednesday and Thursday. All that moisture in the air is going to be dumped in the form of rain – and a lot of it. 

The NAM 3KM computer model shows a line of showers and storms plowing through southern Minnesota late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, with another round of heavy rain and storms late Wednesday night through Thursday morning. 

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh21-60

The timing from the computer model suggests the bulk of the rain and storms will happened late at night through the morning hours of both Wednesday and Thursday, meaning we might be able to salvage some rain-free afternoon hours each day. 

So who gets the heaviest rain with each passing blow from Mother Nature?

  • Tuesday PM-Wednesday AM: Southern 1/3 of Minnesota. 
  • Wednesday PM-Thursday AM: Southern 1/2 of Minnesota
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The first bout will have the potential of dropping widespread 2-4 inches and isolated 5+ amounts Tuesday night through Wednesday morning, with the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities suggesting that the best odds for the higher totals is right along the Minnesota-Iowa border. 

Severe storms can't be ruled out Tuesday night as storms race into southwest Minnesota, and then again Wednesday as storms move into Minnesota out of the South Dakota. 

For Wednesday night, a meteorologist with the NWS Twin Cities wrote in the forecast discussion: "I can`t rule out any forms of severe weather as this time, but it is highly probable to see a wide area of large hail/severe wind gusts as wind shear and instability parameters are high."

We'll recover with a cloudy and cool Friday before entering what's forecast to be an outstanding weekend with sunny skies and highs Saturday in the 70s and maybe even 80 on Sunday. 

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