A row of counties has been added to the northwest side of a winter storm watch associated with a powerful low-pressure system set to bring heavy, wet snow to southern Minnesota on Easter Sunday.
Hennepin, Ramsey and Carver counties in the Twin Cities metro area are now included in the watch, along with Sibley, Nicollet, Brown and Watonwan counties in south-central Minnesota.
The National Weather Service says it is likely that most of the watch area will be upgraded to a winter storm warning later Saturday, although areas on the northwest side of the watch are in the highest bust zone, so it's possible that some counties are downgraded to a winter weather advisory.
There could be some hefty totals where the heavy snow band sets up, which as of now the weather service expects it to be from southeast Minnesota into north-central Wisconsin.
"Snowfall amounts within the heaviest band of snow will likely range from 7- 12 inches, and storms of similar strength in the past have produced over a foot of snowfall in localized areas. This could impact travel, and cause damage to trees and possible power outages," says the NWS Situation Report.
To be clear: Snowfall estimates in the map below are going to become more refined by the time the storm arrives. Any wobble in the storm track could change these numbers dramatically.
Here's a look at the low end and high-end amounts that are possible.
Here's a look at the European model's radar simulation, which is what the National Weather Service has the most confidence in at this point.