Extreme rainfall amounts are becoming more and more likely across portions of southern and southeast Minnesota for the rest of Tuesday into early Wednesday morning.
The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has upgraded the moderate risk that was in place to a high risk, meaning they are very confident that totals of 5 inches or more will fall in the high risk area.
This in turn increases the risk of flash flooding in southeast Minnesota, where the ground is already saturated and rivers are experiencing extremely high water levels.
Areas shaded in pink are high risk, while locations shaded in red are under a moderate risk warning.
Here's another map showing cities within the high risk zone. The majority of the Twin Cities area is expected to narrowly miss the worst of the intense rain.
Computer models are all in agreement that a long period of intense rain will occur in the high risk area, the WPC says. Multiple models are showing 60-90 percent probabilities for 5+ inches of rain, and 30-40 percent probabilities of 8+ inches isolated locations.
All locations in the moderate and high risk zones should anticipate 3-6 inches of rain, with rainfall rates falling at 1-2 inches per hour this afternoon and evening before the storm system pushes into Wisconsin after midnight.
Here's a look at a simulated future radar run, which shows a good projection of the expected heavy rain to fall in the same areas repeatedly after 3 p.m.