Mother Nature has taken the liberty of ordering for Minnesota again, and this time around she'll provide a big, fat helping of hot and humid with a pretty good chance of storms.
It's the last day of September and it's going to feel like mid-July, as the heat surges into the mid to upper 80s for the southern half of the state along with darn near oppressive humidity with dewpoints tipping the scales around 70.
"Warm and humid air will overspread the area today, and bring high temperatures in the 80s with more thunderstorms," says the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities. "Some storms could produce severe weather this afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will also be possible through Tuesday night, primarily along and south of Interstate 90."
A cold front will move through the region Monday through Tuesday, and there could be some severe storms that fire up (if they're able to break the cap) later Monday, followed by waves of heavy rain along the Minnesota-Iowa border.
The best chance for severe storms – hail, damaging winds and tornadoes are all possible – is in eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. That includes the Twin Cities, according to the 8 a.m. update from the Storm Prediction Center.
There is a chance for flash flooding with all of the rain, especially in southeast Minnesota. it's a good bet that a flash flood watch could be issued by the weather service later Monday, with the majority of the rain falling overnight and through much of the day Tuesday.
The NAM 3KM model's simulated radar (GIF might not load in all browsers) shows what could unfold.
For the Twin Cities area, there could be a severe storm or two Monday afternoon/evening as the cold front moves through. The atmosphere might be capped, so there's a decent chance storms simply don't get going. We will be sure to update the Weather MN blog in the event of any watches or warnings.