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With temps expected to surge into upper 90s and potentially over 100 degrees in Minnesota on Monday, there will be a significant amount of fuel for any thunderstorms that can develop. 

NOAA's Storm Prediction Center is forecasting thunderstorm development in eastern Wyoming and northwest Nebraska by mid-afternoon, with more storms firing along a cold front draped across the Dakotas and western/northern Minnesota. 

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The best chance for severe storms – large hail and damaging winds are the main threats – will be in the eastern Dakotas and western/northern Minnesota. It's not impossible for the Twin Cities be hit by storms late Monday night, but's less likely than it is within the enhanced (orange) and slight (yellow) risk areas.

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According to the National Weather Service, most models are like the HRRR below, showing storms ripping through the Dakotas and through western/northern Minnesota. 

hrrr-ncentus-refc-1655726400-1655755200-1655805600-40

The NAM 3km model has storms developing in similar fashion during the evening hours, with some dying clusters of storms maybe reaching the Twin Cities in the middle of the night. 

nam-nest-ncentus-refc-1655726400-1655758800-1655812800-40

But the European model, which is definitely an outlier, is showing storms in southern Minnesota that could move through the Twin Cities. Again, this scenario is highly unlikely, though not impossible. 

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Regardless, it's going to be a steamer outside with dew points rising into the 70s pretty much everywhere. Here's the HRRR's dew point forecast for 6 p.m. 

hrrr-ncentus-dew2m_f-5766000

Those dew points coupled with air temps that are around 95-100 degrees is going to make the heat index extremely uncomfortable, and flat out dangerous for anyone who is outdoors for an extended period of time. Here's the HRRR's heat index (what it feels like outside) forecast for 3 p.m.

hrrr-minnesota-apparent_temperature_f-5755200

The NAM 3km model goes even higher, with the heat index at 4 p.m. in the Twin Cities projected to be 108. 

nam-nest-minnesota-apparent_temperature_f-5758800

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