Strong to severe storms could cause problems for people with outdoor plans Sunday in Minnesota, with the timing of storms possibly impacting fireworks displays.
According to the National Weather Service, storm development will likely be isolated but any that do form will have the potential to produce strong winds and hail, in addition to frequent lightning and heavy rain.
The Storm Prediction Center has posted a slight risk for severe storms in and around the Duluth area, while a marginal risk is in place further south and west, including the Twin Cities metro area.
The HRRR model shows storms forming on the Iron Range between 4-8 p.m. and then developing to the south before fading as the storms moving into northwest Wisconsin.
Meanwhile, temps Sunday will rise into the low-to-mid 90s with increasing humidity values during the afternoon pushing the heat index (what it feels like outside) to near 100 degrees in the Twin Cities and much of the state.
After a hot Monday, the focus turns to soaking rain and severe storm chances Tuesday and again Thursday-Friday, according to the National Weather Service. At this point, Tuesday's system could wind up producing a half-inch to an inch of rain across the entire area.
The European model isn't as bullish on severe storm potential with the Tuesday system as the American and NAM models are.
The attention then turns to Thursday Friday, and as the weather service points out in its forecast discussion, there are signals for a swath of 2-3 inches of rain right down the Interstate 94 corridor on Thursday night, followed by potential for a "decent severe setup" on Friday.
The rain will be very welcome as most of Minnesota is experiencing moderate drought conditions, which are becoming increasingly concerning as mid-July through August are key times for crops in the Upper Midwest.