The National Weather Service continues to monitor a brewing winter storm that is poised to bring impacts to Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin this week.
The service notes that the storm doesn't appear to be the "whopper" of storm with double-digit snowfall totals that computer models were suggesting just a couple of days ago, but there is still potential for significant impacts and accumulating snow.
"Forecast trends continue to show the potential for accumulating snow and travel impacts next week starting Tuesday afternoon and lasting into Wednesday," says the Twin Cities office of the NWS. "The exact track is still unknown, but at this point there is a high potential for the southern half of Minnesota and Wisconsin to receive at least several inches of snowfall."
Areas along and south of Interstate 94 in Minnesota appear to have a good chance of seeing at least four inches of snow, with the weather service giving the Twin Cities metro area an 84% chance of reaching that level.
"At this time, it is too early to discern the exact storm track, which will impact precipitation types and amounts, but there is growing confidence in moderate to heavy snowfall of 4 inches or more for much of the area," the La Crosse office of the NWS said on its website Sunday morning.
AccuWeather has southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, in line for 6-12 inches of snow, noting that blizzard conditions will be possible in some areas.
A fun tool anyone can use to see how much snow is possible is provided here by NOAA's Weather Prediction Center. As of Sunday morning, the interactive map shows a 50-70% the metro gets 6+ inches of snow, and a 30-50% the metro area receives 8+ inches of snow.
Here's one computer simulation of what the storm could look like as it moves through Tuesday-Wednesday. .
There remain considerable differences in the computer models for storm track and intensity, which is one of the reasons the local National Weather Service outlets haven't issued winter weather headlines (winter storm watch), but that could change as the day progresses Sunday.
Be sure to check back for updates. We'll have video briefings from Sven Sundgaard and Novak Weather on Monday, at which point storm details should be much more in focus.