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Latest storm track, snowfall forecast for Tuesday in Minnesota

The Twin Cities has had 2+ inches of snow in an October storm just 10 times since 1884.

"The first notable accumulating snowfall event of the season is on the way tomorrow for much of the area," reads the Monday morning forecast discussion from the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service. 

While snow is on the way, compaction and melting at the onset of snowfall (due to warm ground temps) will make the final result look like less than actually falls. When it's all said and done, there could be 3-5 inches of accumulation in some areas, according to the weather service. That falls in line with what Novak Weather is predicting

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"The main event arrives early Tuesday," says meteorologist Sven Sundgaard. "The heaviest snow will be falling right between about noon and 5 p.m." 

If the ground was frozen and there wasn't a threat of rain mixing in at times, this might've been a storm capable of piling up 6-plus inches of snow. That's unreal for October, when the Twin Cities averages 0.6 inches of snow. 

"I can't believe we're talking about this in mid-October," Sundgaard added, noting that the Twin Cities has only had 10 October snowfalls of 2-plus inches since 1884. 

You can see just how impressive this early season storm is by looking at the hefty snow totals being pumped out by computer models. 

European model: 5-8 inches (compaction and melting will make the final result less)

European model

European model

"There's going to be compacting so we probably won't see that. Probably 2-4 inches in the metro," Sundgaard said. His thinking, as of Sunday night, was that the highest totals could be just west of the metro. 

American model: 6-10 inches (compaction, melting will make the final result less)

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North American Model (NAM): 5-8 inches (final tally less due to melting, compacting)

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NAM 3KM model: 3-6 inches (final tally would be less due to melting, compacting)

Screen Shot 2020-10-19 at 7.14.41 AM

Another aspect of this early season storm is that temperatures dropping back below freezing in parts of the state later in the day Tuesday could lead to slick driving conditions.

Couple that with heavy snow falling at times during the day and travel on Tuesday won't be a piece of cake like a typical October day in Minnesota.

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