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Saturday could be a volatile day for severe weather in Minnesota and Wisconsin, but the timing of a cold front will determine where the nastiest storms are expected. As seems to always be the case, there's a chance the cold front has passed through Minnesota by the time storms erupt during the afternoon, which would leave Wisconsin in the line of fire. 

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the greatest risk for severe storms in southeastern Minnesota, far northeastern Iowa and into Wisconsin. That's where a level 3 of 5 enhanced risk is in place. 

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Aside from some spectacular clouds from a sub-severe storm earlier this month, the Twin Cities has been spared from severe weather going back to the end of May. There have been a few warnings issued, but those were very low-end storms. Throw in drought conditions and a pattern of the metro getting missed more often than not over the past six weeks and Saturday's severe threat falls into the "believe it when you see it" category, according to Bring Me The News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard. 

"Persistence forecasting... it’s an actual thing in operational meteorology forecasting," Sundgaard wrote in a text Thursday morning. "Basically throw all the models & your thoughts in the trash if you’re in a stuck pattern... forecast the same until something proves you otherwise."

So we'll see what happens, but the National Weather Service office in Chanhassen says a "severe weather event is looking increasingly likely east of an advancing front."

"This looks to be your typical summer severe setup where initial supercells congeal into one or more lines. At this point, there is pretty high confidence that we will see a severe event develop Saturday, the main question just revolves around the timing of the front for exactly where the greatest threat will end up residing," the NWS forecast discussion reads

Either way, it's going to be hot and humid Saturday with temps likely around 90 and dew points in the 60s and 70s. That'll set the stage for a ton of energy (CAPE) for storms to work with. 

Large hail, damaging winds – including some significant damaging winds – and tornadoes will be possible, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Tornadoes would be most likely during the early stages of storms before they form a line. 

Right now – and this could easily change based on the predicted location of the front – the Storm Prediction Center says storms could develop in Minnesota, which is where there would be better potential for large hail and tornadoes before the damaging wind threat becomes dominant as the storms form a line. 

Again, believe it when you see it. Sven will have more on the storms as Saturday draws closer. 

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