Skip to main content

Saturday could be a volatile day for severe weather in Minnesota and Wisconsin, but the timing of a cold front will determine where the nastiest storms are expected. As seems to always be the case, there's a chance the cold front has passed through Minnesota by the time storms erupt during the afternoon, which would leave Wisconsin in the line of fire. 

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has the greatest risk for severe storms in southeastern Minnesota, far northeastern Iowa and into Wisconsin. That's where a level 3 of 5 enhanced risk is in place. 

Tab3FileL (11)

Weather is sponsored by All Energy Solar: get a free installation quote now!

Aside from some spectacular clouds from a sub-severe storm earlier this month, the Twin Cities has been spared from severe weather going back to the end of May. There have been a few warnings issued, but those were very low-end storms. Throw in drought conditions and a pattern of the metro getting missed more often than not over the past six weeks and Saturday's severe threat falls into the "believe it when you see it" category, according to Bring Me The News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard. 

"Persistence forecasting... it’s an actual thing in operational meteorology forecasting," Sundgaard wrote in a text Thursday morning. "Basically throw all the models & your thoughts in the trash if you’re in a stuck pattern... forecast the same until something proves you otherwise."

So we'll see what happens, but the National Weather Service office in Chanhassen says a "severe weather event is looking increasingly likely east of an advancing front."

"This looks to be your typical summer severe setup where initial supercells congeal into one or more lines. At this point, there is pretty high confidence that we will see a severe event develop Saturday, the main question just revolves around the timing of the front for exactly where the greatest threat will end up residing," the NWS forecast discussion reads

Either way, it's going to be hot and humid Saturday with temps likely around 90 and dew points in the 60s and 70s. That'll set the stage for a ton of energy (CAPE) for storms to work with. 

Large hail, damaging winds – including some significant damaging winds – and tornadoes will be possible, according to the Storm Prediction Center. Tornadoes would be most likely during the early stages of storms before they form a line. 

Right now – and this could easily change based on the predicted location of the front – the Storm Prediction Center says storms could develop in Minnesota, which is where there would be better potential for large hail and tornadoes before the damaging wind threat becomes dominant as the storms form a line. 

Again, believe it when you see it. Sven will have more on the storms as Saturday draws closer. 

Next Up

School dinners lunch

Minnesota to offer free school meals to 90,000 extra students

Gov. Tim Walz, who is facing re-election in November, announced the measure on Monday.


Minneapolis man dies from injuries days after motorcycle pileup

The 69-year-old died after four days at Regions Hospital.

Sebastion Wolbersen-O’Hara

Police: 15-year-old missing from home north of Twin Cities

Authorities say he may be headed to the metro.


Foundation, the building, the win

Identifying Value Plus Catalysts helps your financial strategy and foundation

boating minnesota lake

25-year-old Hopkins man drowns after falling off boat

The man reportedly fell from the boat while fishing with friends.

mayor frey city minneapolis live stream march 14 2022

What's in Mayor Jacob Frey's budget proposal?

Here's a breakdown of what the Minneapolis mayor is focusing on in 2023-24.

Low, Mimi Parker

Low cancels Europe shows due to Mimi Parker's cancer treatment

The Duluth band says the decision follows 'recent changes' in Parker's treatment.

Screen Shot 2022-08-15 at 11.09.39 AM

Wisconsin man admits to 1992 revenge killings 15 years after boyhood tragedy

The 52-year-old man is in custody 30 years after the 1992 double murder.


Screen Shot 2022-07-22 at 12.57.57 PM

Where to be prepared for severe weather Saturday in Minnesota

Take a look at the latest radar simulations and lightning forecasts.


Twin Cities at risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday afternoon

Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, but a tornado or two is also possible.

storm, severe weather, derecho

Rare moderate risk – level 4 of 5 – for severe storms in MN, WI

"Have a way to receive warnings and be prepared to seek shelter quickly with these fast moving storms," says the NWS.


NWS: 'High potential of snow squalls' Friday in Minnesota

Snow squalls are known to rapidly create dangerous driving conditions.

storm, radar, severe weather

Monitoring severe storm threat Saturday-Tuesday in Minnesota

The holiday weekend won't be a washout, but multiple rounds of strong and severe storms are possible.


Scattered storms – some strong – expected in Minnesota, Wisconsin

Storms Tuesday afternoon and evening will be moving fast to the southeast.

storm, lightning

Severe weather threat for Minnesota Friday night and Saturday

There's a chance storms don't develop, but if they do they could be severe.