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Line of overnight severe storms could blast through Minnesota early Thursday

It's likely that a strong line of storms will develop and push through southern MN.
Author:
lightning, thunderstorm

Among the most common forms of severe weather in Minnesota are lines of storms that race through overnight, bringing frequent lightning, constant rumbles of thunder and occasional large hail and damaging winds. 

Such a line hasn't blasted Minnesota yet this year, but that could change as storms are expected to develop late Wednesday and push through southern Minnesota after midnight into Thursday morning. 

Where will the storms develop? It depends on who you ask. 

"Strong to severe storms could develop later this evening over southwest Minnesota and move toward east central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin after midnight," the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities says. 

Meanwhile, AccuWeather is going with a different forecast

"From Wednesday evening into Wednesday night, a large complex of storms may erupt in southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota and travel southeastward into the northern parts of Kansas and Missouri."

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Either way, they're likely to impact parts of Minnesota overnight into Thursday morning. 

All of Minnesota along and south of Interstate 94 is in a slight risk for severe weather. A slight risk is Level 2 of the weather service's 5-number scale. 

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What do the computer models show?

The morning run of the NAM 3KM model (GIFs may not load in all browsers, click the link if it doesn't) shows a bowing line of storms over South Dakota pushing east into western Minnesota and then diving southeast into south-central Minnesota early Thursday. In this case, the brunt of the storms could go south of the metro. 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_fh23-34

The NAM 12KM model, however, has the line moving right through the Twin Cities, but not into midday Thursday. 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_fh30-48

And the HRRR model shows a simulated future radar about in the middle of the NAM models, although the timing would have the storms pushing through the metro area between 6-8 a.m. 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_fh19-33

Regardless, there will probably be folks in southern Minnesota staring down a impressive shelf cloud (leading edge of the storms) early Thursday morning. As is the case with nocturnal storms, it's wise to adjust the settings on your phone to allow your alert system to notify you if your county is placed in a severe storm warning. 

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