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Minnesota could be under the gun for big storms, heavy rain on Wednesday

A slight risk for severe storms may be increased to a higher probability in due time.
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Much-needed rain is forecast to fall in southern Minnesota on Wednesday, though the National Weather Service is also monitoring potential for severe storms capable of producing damaging winds and tornadoes.

"Model guidance continues to look interesting for Wednesday. The potential exists for severe thunderstorms along with significant rains, especially over southern Minnesota and Wisconsin," says Tom Novak of Novak Weather and Bring Me The News. 

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the southern half of Minnesota in a slight risk for severe storms Wednesday, though notes in its Monday update that if model trends continue "severe weather probabilities will need to be increased in later outlooks for this period."

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There is potential "for the evolution of a large and sustained, organized and forward (northeastward/eastward) propagating convective system," the Storm Prediction Center says.

"This could be accompanied by swaths of damaging wind gusts, and the environment may become conditionally conducive to a number of embedded mesovortices along the gust front, accompanied by the risk for tornadoes."

In other words, there is potential for a line of thunderstorms push through southern Minnesota while producing damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. 

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Another concern for Wednesday is the threat of soaking rains, which are needed as much of Minnesota is experiencing severe drought conditions. This rainmaker is expected to deliver anywhere from 1-3 inches of rain for parts of southern Minnesota. 

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As of July 6, nearly 40% of Minnesota is in severe drought, meaning the ground is hard, crops may be struggling and fire dangers are high. 

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