Minnesota and the Twin Cities could be set for a long-overdue blast of snow early next week, though how much will materialize is still the subject of conjecture.
Over the coming days you may see some people tweeting graphics that show 12+ inches of snow projected next week in Minnesota, but these figures will likely be formulated based on the Kuchera ratio. As meteorologist Sven Sundgaard told us Thursday: "Those ratios are very suspect at this point ... they're going like 25:1."
What he means is that the Kuchera ratio is projecting 25 inches of snow for every 1 inch of liquid, when the climatological norm is more like 10 or 12 inches of snow for 1 inch of liquid.
As such, knowing that any predictions this far out can't be trusted, here's a look at what some of the models are projecting for Minnesota at a 10:1 ratio for Monday-Thursday next week.
So at a rate of 10:1 the models would project a range of 7-12 inches of snow for the Twin Cities metro. Just to reiterate though, we're four days out from Monday at this point, and a recurring theme for the metro this winter has been one of mostly disappointment when it comes to snow totals.
But Bring Me The News meteorologist Tom Novak has "strong confidence" that there will be travel impacts when the system arrives, which will most likely happen Monday night into Tuesday.
"We have a strong jet stream north of Minnesota and another south of Minnesota, ... that puts us in between these two jet streaks which is a perfect position for a significant lift in our atmosphere ... we have potential for significant snow here across the region."
Watch his forecast here:
The National Weather Service agrees. In its forecast discussion Thursday afternoon, it said:
"The next chance for significant snowfall returns early to mid-week as a broad trough approaches the region. With this, there is an increasing potential for a widespread snow event in our region. While still very early, decent agreement between models indicates a substantial amount of snowfall by Wednesday."
Even if the snowfall projections reduce over the coming days, there could still be a shot of beating the biggest snowfall in the Twin Cities so far in 2022, which was 3.7 inches in mid-January.
The biggest snowfall of the winter season in the metro came on Dec. 10-11, when 11 inches fell at MSP, and some parts of the southeast metro saw more than 20 inches.
Friday weather could suck
Oh just a word to the wise about Friday. Minnesota can expect to see a very quick, very intense snow squall pass through that will be preceded by warming temperatures, and followed by freezing temperatures.
So basically what could happen late morning into the early afternoon is we see a period of snow/ice melt, then a burst of snow, and then a flash freeze, which could make conditions on the roads really difficult.
A winter weather advisory has also been issued for west-central Minnesota, where 40 mph winds could lead to problems caused by blowing snow.