Skip to main content

Minnesota and the Twin Cities could be set for a long-overdue blast of snow early next week, though how much will materialize is still the subject of conjecture. 

Over the coming days you may see some people tweeting graphics that show 12+ inches of snow projected next week in Minnesota, but these figures will likely be formulated based on the Kuchera ratio. As meteorologist Sven Sundgaard told us Thursday: "Those ratios are very suspect at this point ... they're going like 25:1." 

Weather is sponsored by All Energy Solar: get a free installation quote now!

What he means is that the Kuchera ratio is projecting 25 inches of snow for every 1 inch of liquid, when the climatological norm is more like 10 or 12 inches of snow for 1 inch of liquid. 

As such, knowing that any predictions this far out can't be trusted, here's a look at what some of the models are projecting for Minnesota at a 10:1 ratio for Monday-Thursday next week. 

American model

gfs-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_10to1-5758000

European model

ecmwf-deterministic-ncentus-total_snow_10to1-5660800

Canadian model

Screen Shot 2022-02-17 at 1.42.36 PM

So at a rate of 10:1 the models would project a range of 7-12 inches of snow for the Twin Cities metro. Just to reiterate though, we're four days out from Monday at this point, and a recurring theme for the metro this winter has been one of mostly disappointment when it comes to snow totals.

But Bring Me The News meteorologist Tom Novak has "strong confidence" that there will be travel impacts when the system arrives, which will most likely happen Monday night into Tuesday.

"We have a strong jet stream north of Minnesota and another south of Minnesota, ... that puts us in between these two jet streaks which is a perfect position for a significant lift in our atmosphere ... we have potential for significant snow here across the region."

Watch his forecast here:

The National Weather Service agrees. In its forecast discussion Thursday afternoon, it said: 

"The next chance for significant snowfall returns early to mid-week as a broad trough approaches the region. With this, there is an increasing potential for a widespread snow event in our region. While still very early, decent agreement between models indicates a substantial amount of snowfall by Wednesday."

Even if the snowfall projections reduce over the coming days, there could still be a shot of beating the biggest snowfall in the Twin Cities so far in 2022, which was 3.7 inches in mid-January.

The biggest snowfall of the winter season in the metro came on Dec. 10-11, when 11 inches fell at MSP, and some parts of the southeast metro saw more than 20 inches.

Sign up: Subscribe to our BREAKING WEATHER newsletters

Friday weather could suck

Oh just a word to the wise about Friday. Minnesota can expect to see a very quick, very intense snow squall pass through that will be preceded by warming temperatures, and followed by freezing temperatures.

So basically what could happen late morning into the early afternoon is we see a period of snow/ice melt, then a burst of snow, and then a flash freeze, which could make conditions on the roads really difficult.

A winter weather advisory has also been issued for west-central Minnesota, where 40 mph winds could lead to problems caused by blowing snow. 

Next Up

Redtail Ridge Elementary

Sunbather on the roof triggers shelter-in-place at Savage elementary school

The sunbather told police he was trying to "tan and relax."

Nero

The Raptor Center's ambassador, Nero the turkey vulture, dies at 47

Nero helped save the California condors before taking up his post as an education ambassador.

Ben Leber

Ben Leber named new permanent co-host of 'Twin Cities Live'

The former Minnesota Vikings linebacker was introduced Friday afternoon.

MPR

APM Reports, maker of 'In the Dark' podcast, nixed by Minnesota Public Radio

MPR said "select programming elements" of APM Reports will be incorporated into MPR News.

storm, severe

The latest on holiday weekend severe weather chances for MN

The most significant severe threats are Sunday night and again on Monday.

Arianna Vos

Charges: Driver was drunk, high in head-on crash that killed 19-year-old woman

The young woman killed in the crash was a college student studying zoology.

motorcycle

Motorcyclist killed in Ham Lake after passing in the turn lane

The motorcyclist was hit by a car turning onto the road.

Keith Ellison

Minnesota gets cut of Ford settlement over misleading ads

The $19.2 million settlement centers on Ford's C-Max hybrid and Super Duty pickup truck.

Related

snow

Big storm system could bring significant rain, snow to MN next week

The system could impact the region Wednesday-Friday next week.

Bloomington aerial view

Snow could be hard to come by in MN until at least Valentine's Day

The biggest snowfall in the Twin Cities since getting a foot on Dec. 10 is a measly 3.7 inches.

snow - 12-10-21 - Joe Nelson - 6

Sunday snowstorm to deliver heavy snow, tough travel conditions

How much snow will fall in the Twin Cities? The models are a bit different.

snow, slush

Snow squalls possible Friday; accumulations Monday?

It's nothing major, but could accumulate to a few inches in some spots.

slushy snow

Strong storm bringing rain, wet snow to MN through Wednesday

Up to an inch of rain could fall in the Twin Cities.

Snow, Hanley Falls

Latest storm track, snow forecast for weekend winter storm

The National Weather Service has issued a winter storm watch.

plow, snowplow, snow

Plowable snow possible this weekend in Minnesota

Up to half a foot of snow could fall within the heaviest band.

snow

Next system arrives Saturday and likely drops accumulating snow in MN

The Twin Cities might get in on the snow accumulation this weekend.