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Most likely rain, snow scenarios for Tuesday-Thursday storm system

Still a low-confidence forecast, according to meteorologist Sven Sundgaard.

Last week, meteorologist Sven Sundgaard explained why weather models are so finicky and have a tough time forecasting spring storms. That is proving the case  this week as the incoming storm system for Tuesday-Thursday now looks like it'll bring the worst of its impact to Wisconsin. 

Minnesota is still going to get hit by the long-duration system. The first impacts are from a low that moves through Tuesday before a stronger low churns from southwest to northeast Wednesday-Thursday. 

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"The midweek storm system remains large but impactful weather will be limited or minor," the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities said Monday. "There will be a period of heavy rainfall during the onset of precipitation Tuesday evening. Only minor snowfall accumulations are expected as the system evolves through midweek, but only a slight chance of freezing rain remains during the onset of precipitation Tuesday night."

"There are still uncertainties with this storm system, but chances of significant rainfall, snowfall, and ice potential has lowered. Please continue to monitor the latest forecast as the storm system develops," the NWS added. 

It's worth noting, however, that the forecast discussion from the Duluth office of the National Weather Service flat out says: "I'm not sure how much faith to put into the current suite of solutions."

But as Sundgaard notes in his video briefing Monday, the models are honing in on more trustworthy outcomes. In the graph below, you can see three different model runs over the past five days and the amounts of snow (inches) they have been predicting for the Twin Cities. So right now, 1-2 inches of slush for the metro appears to be the most likely outcome. 

trends

High amounts can be expected in northern/northeastern Minnesota. 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ncentus-snow_ge_3-8792800

Here's the latest radar simulation from the European model, which has mostly rain impacting southern Minnesota and accumulating snow in the northern third of the state. 

floop-ecmwf_full-2022032812.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_mw

And here's the American model, which shows the second system producing heavier rain and snow in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe. This model has the low tracking a little slower and further south, which would suggest higher snow totals for southern Minnesota. This, however, appears to be an outlier. 

floop-gfs-2022032812.prateptype_cat.us_mw

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