A rainy Wednesday morning in the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota is the first element of a wild weather day in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
As the day progresses, a shield of moderate to heavy snow is expected to develop in central and northern parts of the state, leading to accumulations of 3+ inches for many, including enough to warrant a winter storm warning in Duluth and the Northland.
Further south, a second round of showers and storms may develop Wednesday afternoon, with the Storm Prediction Center issuing a marginal risk for severe weather.
"A second round of thunderstorms may develop across this region this afternoon and evening. A couple of these storms may be severe with high winds and hail. A tornado also cannot be ruled out," says the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service.
The forecast discussion from the NWS Twin Cities clarifies the severe threat further: "The best chance for this will be east of a line from St. James to the Twin Cities and Rice Lake."
The warmer temps get, the more instability for strong storms there will be, the NWS noted.
If a tornado does occur, it won't be the earliest in state history. That happened on Mar. 6, 2017 when three tornadoes touched down in Freeborn, Sherburne and Faribault counties.
Meanwhile, a stripe of snow will cover the ground and pile up in some places on an east-northeast gradient from near the South Dakota-North Dakota border up through the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Totals up to six inches could be common in Morris, Alexandria, Brainerd, Grand Rapids and Duluth.
Here's the simulated future radar from the 7 a.m. update of the HRRR model, which does show a second round of storms in southern Minnesota, including the Twin Cities, this afternoon.
For more on what to expect Wednesday, here's Novak Weather's video briefing.