Maybe this will be a year where there's no talk of a brown Christmas in Minnesota.
Last year, 1.2 inches of snow was recorded at MSP Airport in November and it all melted by December. And then there was a tornado outbreak five days after a snowstorm dumped 11.8 inches on the Twin Cities Dec. 10-11. That severe weather outbreak wiped out all of the snow and there was pretty much no snow on the ground for Christmas 2021.
This year, after 13 inches of snow in November and more coming this week, it's beginning look like a white Christmas is a lock. Don't hold your breath just yet, but the signs are encouraging.
Take today's forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities, which discusses three rounds of light snow expected Monday-Wednesday before saying, "it's safe to say a more active period of weather with the possibility of some more substantial precip is on the horizon."
"As we head into the first full week of December, several shortwaves will traverse the region, each bringing light snow to different portions of the forecast area," the weather service says.
Monday snow: southern MN, western WI
The HRRR model's simulation above shows mixed precipitation moving through far southern Minnesota between 2-8 a.m. Monday and then another brief clip of light snow during the afternoon. A dusting to a half inch of snow is expected, but not in the Twin Cities.
Tuesday snow: northern and central MN
Snow is expected to start Tuesday morning and come to an end Tuesday afternoon, with up an inch expected. What's interesting is that the latest NAM model shows some heavier snow in southern Minnesota, so that'll have to be monitored to see if future model runs keep the Twin Cities in line for snow.
Wednesday snow: northern and central MN
"Northern and central Minnesota will once again be the focus for a third wave Wednesday morning with another quick hit of up to an inch of snow possible. This puts the three day snow total to around 2" for northern and central Minnesota with less than an inch for southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin," the weather service says.
More substantial activity beyond?
Beyond Thursday the forecast is not certain, but this is the part where the NWS was talking about more active weather and more substantial precipitation. Again, nothing is set it stone, but watch how much more active the European model gets during the end of this GIF, which is a simulation representing Monday to the following Monday.
We'll be monitoring the forecast as each round of snow arrives.