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Oct. 12 Weather with Sven: Nice start to the week before big chill; snow next weekend?

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One to two inches of rain fell across the southern half of Minnesota Sunday night into Monday morning, but skies have quickly cleared to help the start of the work week blossom into a pretty nice day. 

The next chance of rain – and not much of it – comes Wednesday, but then all attention turns to the weekend where cooler temperatures will be in place. Meteorologist Sven Sundgaard is watching for the potential of the first hard freeze in the Twin Cities metro area next weekend. 

The big unknown is what a potential weekend system will deliver. Will it be rain, thunderstorms, a wintry mix or snow? 

"Yeah it’s literally anything is possible," said Sundgaard, noting that long range computer models are not in good agreement about what will happen, but it bears monitoring since the European model suggests the possibility for some snow in parts of Minnesota over the weekend into Monday. 

"Mere entertainment value a week out and early season complexities, but, when models agree someone in northern Minnesota might get snow, you listen. Will be fun to watch through the week," Sundgaard added. 

Here's the long range radar simulation, which again, needs to be taken with a grain of salt since it's so far out (Saturday-Monday). 


"The greatest chance for more organized precipitation will be Saturday and Saturday night as a shortwave trough pivots through the region. Lake effect snow showers will be possible for the northwest Wisconsin snowbelt areas from Thursday night through the weekend," said the Duluth office of the National Weather Service. 

The Twin Cities averages 0.6 inches of snow in October, so it's that time of year again. The average first one inch snowfall in the Twin Cities is Nov. 18, according to the DNR's Climate Office. The earliest one inch snowfall in the Twin Cities was Sept. 26, 1942 and the latest on record was Jan. 9, 1945. 

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