The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has boosted the severe weather chances in parts of Minnesota on Monday, elevating a section of central and northwest Minnesota from a slight to enhanced risk of severe storms.
The Twin Cities remains in a slight risk, but areas along the Interstate 94 corridor to the northwest of the metro up through Fargo are now in an enhanced risk, which is essentially a product of what the SPC says is an increased damaging wind threat.
The area of enhanced risk is nearly identical to areas of greatest risk in Novak Weather's forecast.
Tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds possible
Tornadoes are possible in west-central and northwest Minnesota, though the chances of a tornado are expected to decrease as storms build into a line. It's at that point that damaging winds and large hail become the primary threats, though it's impossible to rule out a tornado within the line of storms.
Here's a look at a couple of computer model simulations, which show storms firing in North Dakota this afternoon and racing into northwest/west-central Minnesota around dinner time. Storms then evolve further to the south and west, which are expected to congeal into clusters that dart to the east/southeast, possibly arriving in the Twin Cities area around midnight.
Here's the HRRR model simulation.
Here's the NAM NEST model simulation.
The NAM NEST model gives a good look at the prolonged period of heavy rain possible from south-central into east-central Minnesota and western Wisconsin through early Tuesday. That's where there is a chance for isolating flooding, as upwards of 2 inches of rain may fall in some locations.