Picture perfect weather expected for first day of Minnesota State Fair

Thursday looks perfect. Friday through Sunday is in question.
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The Great Minnesota Sweat-Together will be anything but that when the State Fair begins Thursday. Instead, the forecast calls for food sweats replacing heat sweats.  

"The middle of the week will start out dry with a taste of fall in the air as a cold front moves through the region and brings highs in the 70s, with lows in the 50s for Wednesday and Thursday," says the forecast discussion Monday morning from the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities. 

That isn't to say all 12 days of the fair will be weather-friendly. In fact, as soon as Day 1 is in the books, the humidity will begin to return in time for the weekend, and with it comes the chance for showers and storms. 

"Looking ahead, warmer temperatures and increased humidity should last through next weekend," the forecast discussion says

We're not talking about a brutal heat wave, but the Climate Prediction Center believes there is a 30-40 percent probability of above normal temperatures Aug. 24-28. And you can bet that dewpoints in the 60s and 70s will make it plenty uncomfortable outdoors. 

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But temperature probabilities Aug. 26 through Sept. 1 suggest below normal conditions, which would equate to the final days of the fair bringing temps in the 70s. 

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Strong storms late Monday up north and down south?

The best chance for storms anywhere in Minnesota before the State Fair begins is late Monday night into the early Tuesday hours, namely in northwest and far southern parts of the state, where there is a marginal risk for severe storms (there's a better chance in Iowa). 

The simulated future radar from the HRRR model shows storms holding off until well after midnight, but once they get going they could be strong, possibly severe. 

The radar simulation represents what could happen between 10 p.m. Monday and 3 p.m. Tuesday. 

The radar simulation represents what could happen between 10 p.m. Monday and 3 p.m. Tuesday. 

The model's simulation shows the storms from northwestern Minnesota pushing through central Minnesota, even reaching the Twin Cities by mid-morning Tuesday. We'll see if it happens. 

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