Enhanced risk of severe storms to push through Minnesota late Monday

Storms could reach the Twin Cities before midnight.
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12:05 P.M. 

No changes to the severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center, so everything below is still in play, although storms may not reach the metro until after midnight. 

Check back for additional updates this afternoon. 

8:45 A.M. 

It's been at least a couple of weeks since Minnesota has had a substantial threat for severe weather, but that changes Monday night as a line of severe storms is projected to blast through the midsection of the state. 

Severe storms are possible pretty much everywhere in Minnesota, but the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed an area along and around Interstate 94, including the Twin Cities metro area, in an enhanced risk for severe weather. 

Tab2FileL (3)

The SPC forecasts severe weather on a five-level scale, and enhanced is level three. 

  1. Marginal risk
  2. Slight risk
  3. Enhanced risk
  4. Moderate risk
  5. High risk

The area within the enhanced risk has the greatest chance of having a severe line of storms push through late in the day Monday into the overnight hours. 

Tab3FileL

Damaging winds will be the main threat if this line of storms does develop, although some tornadoes along the leading edge of the line will be possible if dewpoints of around 70 degrees exist, the SPC says. 

The latest HRRR model (as of 8 a.m.), however, keeps the line of storms mainly north of the metro. 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_fh11-25

Bottom line: severe weather is fluid and the SPC could easily adjust the enhanced risk areas when they issue new outlooks at 11:30 a.m. and 3 p.m. We'll be sure to update this story as new outlooks are released. 

Here's where the main tornado threat exists. Again, tornadoes aren't a sure thing but will be possible along the leading edge of the line of storms.  

Screen Shot 2019-09-02 at 8.32.01 AM

Here's where the damaging wind threat is greatest. It does include the Twin Cities area. 

Screen Shot 2019-09-02 at 8.32.20 AM

The large hail threat (some significant hail possible) remains in the eastern Dakotas and west-central Minnesota. 

Screen Shot 2019-09-02 at 8.32.40 AM

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