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Rain, snow, maybe thunder as storm system moves through southern Minnesota Thursday

Best chance for some thunderstorms is from St. James to Red Wing and south.

It'll be a rainy day across southern Minnesota with precipitation eventually changing over to snow Thursday. 

An inch or two of snow is possible in some areas, but that is largely dependent on how soon rain changes to snow, according to the National Weather Service. Here's what they're expecting in terms of snow totals. 

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"A strong storm system is still expected to bring rain today that will change to snow tonight, with strong winds this afternoon into Friday," the Twin Cities office of the weather service says. 

"Confidence has increased on where the storm will track. This has resulted in a longer duration of rain and less snowfall. Most locations can expect 1" of rain before perhaps 1 to 2" of snow."

Far southeastern Minnesota has a marginal risk for strong to severe thunderstorms developing Thursday afternoon, although the greater risk for damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes is deeper into Iowa. 

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Here's the simulated radar from the HRRR model, which shows mostly rain falling in the Twin Cities, with the changeover to snow more prominent south of the metro. 

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Once the precipitation ends, strong northwest winds will follow and be a reminder of winter's bite Friday morning as temperatures will be 5-10 degrees in parts of greater Minnesota to around 20 degrees in the Twin Cities. 

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