Severe risk elevated to 'enhanced' in the Twin Cities, central Minnesota

Storms are forecast to develop between 3-6 p.m. Saturday.
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The severe storm threat is again shaping up to impact parts of southern and central Minnesota on Saturday. At 11:30 a.m., the Storm Prediction Center, which forecasts severe weather, has elevated the chances of severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening to an "enhanced risk" for the Twin Cities and areas to the northwest. 

These maps look like they were drawn by crayon, but they'll do the trick in showing where the best chances for severe weather currently exist. Here's the enhanced risk zone, as seen in orange. Areas in yellow could also see severe storms. 

Screen Shot 2020-07-18 at 11.42.21 AM

The enhanced risk is basically spot-on compared to the area of greatest risk highlighted earlier Saturday by Novak Weather

SevereBMTN071820 (2)

Tornadoes can't be ruled out, the primary hazards are expected to be damaging winds and large hail. Here's where the winds could be quite strong, though the SPC notes that the enhanced area could extend south/east with further updates Saturday. 

Screen Shot 2020-07-18 at 11.42.48 AM

In the first couple of hours after storms develop, they will be capable of dropping hail. In some cases, it could be very large hail, the SPC said. The area circled with hash marks is where the largest hailstones could fall. 

Screen Shot 2020-07-18 at 11.43.03 AM

Storms are expected to rapidly develop between 3-6 p.m. and spread to the east. Similar to yesterday, the HRRR model has storms a little further north (first GIF below), while the NAM NEST model (second GIF below) has more expansive development and further south. Either way, storms are expected to fire up mid-afternoon. 

15Z-20200718_HRRRNGP_prec_radar-3-18-10-100
12Z-20200718_NAMNSTNGP_prec_radar-6-18-10-100

Stay alert for watches and warnings, and check the Bring Me The News Facebook page around 2 p.m. for a video briefing on the severe threat from Novak Weather. 

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