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Severe storm threat still in question Tuesday afternoon in Minnesota

If the sun finds a way to come out, nasty storms could develop.
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The big weather question of the day is if strong storms will redevelop behind a line currently moving through south-central and eastern Minnesota. 

The answer: Maybe. 

If they do, they could be strong, possibly severe, capable of producing damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes. It all depends on if the atmosphere can destabilize enough after the morning and early afternoon storms stabilized things a bit. 

One thing that could help keep storms below severe limits is that small cells continue to develop behind the leading line of showers, currently over south-central Minnesota. So long as that continues, the clouds will stick around the atmosphere won't be able to recharge. 

As of now, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed almost all of Minnesota in a marginal risk for severe weather. That's the lowest risk on the severe spectrum, although forecasters hinted that they "strongly considered" increasing to a Slight Risk, which could still happen when the new SPC outlook is issued around 3 p.m. 

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The latest simulated future radar (as of 1 p.m.) shows storms moving through the metro area and southeast Minnesota between 2-7 p.m. (not the entire time). 

hrrr_ref_frzn_ncus_fh2-8

Had the sun broken out for a good chunk of the morning and early afternoon in the Twin Cities, stronger storms would've been more likely. But it appears now that the threat is mostly isolated in nature, not widespread. 

Again, the next update from the SPC comes around 3 p.m., and that could include an increase in severe potential. There are "lingering doubts" about how much the environment will destabilize. 

We'll update the Weather MN blog is storm evolution warrants an update. 

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