Skies are expected to turn angry in parts of central and southeastern Minnesota, and eastward into Wisconsin Monday afternoon and evening as intense heat and humidity will serve as fuel for a passing storm system.
According to the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service (NWS Twin Cities), there will be plenty of instability to help any storms that fire Monday afternoon to be capable of all severe hazards, though large hail and strong winds are the more likely threats.
"The greatest impacts are expected to be from high winds and large hail, but with some guidance suggesting areas of high low level shear tornadoes cannot be ruled out," the forecast discussion from NWS Twin Cities reads.
Novak Weather is monitoring the I-94 corridor from west of St. Cloud into the metro area and eastward into Wisconsin for severe storms.
Here's how the Storm Prediction Center's severe risk map compares to Novak Weather's "area of greatest risk."
How soon storms redevelop Monday afternoon is the big question. The HRRR model's radar simulation has shows and thundershowers lingering along the I-94 corridor through midday and doesn't show more robust storm development until sunset or later.
According to the Storm Prediction Center's 7:45 a.m. update, if storms do develop this afternoon they will be capable of large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. If storms hold off on developing until later, the main threats would be torrential rain, hail and wind.
Meanwhile, a heat advisory is in effect Monday across the southern third of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities metro area. Temps rising into the upper 80s and low to even the mid 90s, coupled with very muggy air, will lead to heat index values around 100 degrees.