Severe storms could push through central Minnesota Friday night

It could be a thundery night, with more storms possible over the weekend.
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A line of storms is forecast to develop and move through central Minnesota later Friday, and some of the storms could be severe. 

The Storm Prediction Center, however, said in its 8 a.m. update that confidence in storms reach severe levels is decreasing, though the threat still remains for a slight chance of damaging winds, hail and brief tornadoes. 

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The Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service (NWS Twin Cities) says morning storms in the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota could redevelop by early afternoon in west-central Minnesota, then form into a line as they push to the east. 

Here's what Novak Weather is thinking. He expects storms to initiate over northern Minnesota and track east-southeast, with strong winds being the main concern, though an isolated tornado and hail threat can't be ruled out over northern Minnesota. 

SevereBMTN080720

The overall track of the storms is to be determined, but the NWS Twin Cities favors a track along and north of Interstate 94. Here's a look at a couple of simulated future radars that show redevelopment around 6 p.m. First, the HRRR model. 

12Z-20200807_HRRRNGP_prec_radar-1-36-10-100

Now the NAM Nest model, which has storms diving further to the southeast, which would present a greater chance for storms in the Twin Cities metro area. 

12Z-20200807_NAMNSTNGP_prec_radar-2-32-10-100

Minnesota dries out Saturday and conditions are forecast to remain dry due to a strong cap in place, but the NWS Twin Cities notes that "if the cap doesn't prove as robust as forecast, storms could be explosive on Saturday afternoon." We'll keep an eye on that. 

More severe weather is possible Sunday, and Novak Weather is watching that situation closely. Here is his weather briefing about the Sunday setup from Thursday. 

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