Severe storms could target the Twin Cities Thursday afternoon

Damaging winds will be the main severe threat.
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The skies are likely to growl a bit Thursday afternoon and evening in parts of Minnesota, and because there's enough juice in the atmosphere the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has increased the severe risk over a portion of southern Minnesota from marginal to slight.

Either way, widespread severe storms aren't expected, but the new slight risk zone does include the Twin Cities metro area, and points to the southwest through Mankato all the way into northern Iowa. 


Per the SPC, storms could form over western Minnesota this afternoon and then build southward along a line and march to the east. Locations in the slight risk area (yellow in the map above), could see a cluster of "robust thunderstorms" capable of producing damaging winds. 

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This is approximately the same area that Novak Weather has been touting as the area of greatest risk for severe weather for the past couple of days. But as Novak and the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service have said, the severe threat is largely conditional on how long clouds stick around. If the sun breaks out early, the chance for strong-to-severe storms are better. 


Here's the simulated future radar from the HRRR model, which shows storms redeveloping in southwest Minnesota around the lunch hour and then moving east. Though, as always with simulations, take it with a grain of salt as many moving parts could change things in future model runs. 


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