Monday is shaping up to be a wet day across most of Minnesota, with the potential for severe weather in the southern half of the state.
Severe weather is not a guarantee, but if the sun breaks out and temperatures are able to rise out of the 60s in southern Minnesota, the threat for explosive storm development will exist during the afternoon and evening hours.
The best chance for severe storms will be in the southern third of Minnesota, including the Twin Cities.
The simulated future radar from the HRRR model (GIF might not load in all browsers) gives a good look at what could happen. It shows heavy rain advancing into southwest and west-central Minnesota by midday, with storms redeveloping in southern Minnesota during the afternoon.
The storms that redevelop during the afternoon are the ones that could produce large hail and damaging winds, not to mention a threat of tornadoes if any individual supercells develop.
The NWS Twin Cities also mentions the threat for excessive rainfall in southeast Minnesota and west-central Wisconsin, with storms this afternoon and evening potentially training over the same areas. That thinking aligns with the slight risk of excessive rainfall forecast by the Weather Prediction Center.
Monday's rain is just the start of a very wet week on tap. Tuesday will be outstanding with sunshine and temps nearing 80, but Wednesday and Thursday look very wet. Upwards of 3-4 inches of rain could fall this week, with locally higher amounts where heavy storms occur.