Say so long to the gorgeous weather Monday brought to Minnesota and get ready for another increase in humidity and storm chances, namely for southern parts of the state on Tuesday.
The latest information from the Storm Prediction Center calls for a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on and south/east of a line from southwest Minnesota up through the Twin Cities and into central Wisconsin.
All modes of severe weather appear possible, including tornadoes, although the greater risk will be for damaging winds and some cases of very large hail, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
"Strong to severe storms are expected to form by the late afternoon tomorrow, moving eastwards through the late evening. All severe risks are possible including hail, gusty winds, and a few tornadoes," says the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities. "The best environment for severe weather is within the slight risk area."
The key to who gets the storms is how long the atmosphere stays capped. If storms don't fire until after dark, the Twin Cities could wind up dry while storms fire to the south and east. But if storms develop during late afternoon or evening, the Twin Cities could certainly get in on possible severe weather.
Here's the latest radar simulation from the NAM 3KM model (GIF might not load in all browsers), showing storms firing pretty much right over the metro around 7 p.m. Tuesday. The simulation is for 3 p.m. Tuesday through 2 a.m. Wednesday. It's going to be close, but the metro could easily get missed if the timing holds.
The timing from the HRRR model is similar, but it suggests storms will mostly miss the metro and pose a greater threat to Rochester, Winona and the far corner of southeast Minnesota.
Again, these are computer models that will adjust as the storm system nears. The timing will be everything on Tuesday, and we'll be sure to update the Weather MN blog as clarity develops.
Once the cold front plows through Minnesota Tuesday night, windy and cooler conditions will prevail Wednesday before more rain and storm chances arrive Thursday night with heavy rain in the forecast for Friday. Another soaker could be in the works for over the weekend, but that's too far out to be certain of.