Severe thunderstorms are expected to explode Wednesday afternoon somewhere in the area of eastern Nebraska, southeast South Dakota and northwest Iowa and then move north-northeast through southern Minnesota.
The best chance for tornadoes is in southwestern Minnesota, with storms eventually moving from a discrete mode to a line segment that will extend a damaging wind threat to the Twin Cities metro area.
Storms that erupt and remain discrete will pose a tornado threat, in addition to large to very large hail, according to the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center. Once storms evolve into a line, they will surge northeast and as they do the tornado and hail threat will diminish while the damaging wind threat increases.
Here's how the Twin Cities office of the NWS sees things playing out:
"Later this afternoon, a complex of thunderstorms are expected to develop across eastern Nebraska, and move north-northeast toward southwest Minnesota. These storms are expected to intensify as they move into Minnesota. Please be aware that severe weather is possible later today. Be prepared and monitor the latest forecast and possible warnings."
Here's how the HRRR model projects today's radar simulation.
More of the same areas could get slammed by severe storms again on Thursday. The SPC expects discrete supercells to develop in the Dakotas and western Minnesota – those will be capable of producing tornadoes and very large hail – before one or more bowing line segments push east through Minnesota.