Severe threat ramps up Sunday; outbreak possible Monday in Minnesota

Minnesotans will need to be aware of the weather the rest of the holiday weekend as there is potential for dangerous storms not only late Sunday night, but again with potentially a widespread severe weather outbreak on Memorial Day. 

Strong storms that moved through Minnesota early Sunday morning have weakened, but the next round is expected late Sunday evening and night as more storms erupt over South Dakota and Nebraska and move to the northeast. 

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The Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Mankato are included in an enhanced risk for severe weather, which represents level 3 of 5 on the National Weather Service's severe scale. Damaging winds, isolated tornadoes and large hail are possible.  

The latest HRRR computer model shows storms firing between 5-7 p.m. in northwestern Minnesota, with more activity popping around sunset in southwestern Minnesota, possibly reaching the Twin Cities metro area around 11 p.m. or midnight. 

Monday could be a very active day for severe weather in Minnesota, as the Storm Prediction Center says long-track, intense tornadoes may be possible. 

"Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast from parts of the Upper Midwest southward into the central Great Plains on Monday and Monday night. Large to giant hail, 60-80 mph gusts, and several tornadoes are probable, including the possibility for a couple of intense long-track tornadoes over parts of the Upper Midwest," the SPC says. 

NWS Twin Cities senior meteorologist Bill Borghoff says Monday's setup over Minnesota is "concerning to say the least," saying "we may have an outbreak to contend with."

The HRRR model shows an arc of supercells former Monday afternoon over western/central Minnesota that lifts north-northeast through the evening, followed by more storms developing along a north/south line along the advancing cold front. 

The significant tornado parameter is forecast to be off the charts in central Minnesota on Monday afternoon. This is the HRRR model for 4 p.m. Monday. 

All of the specifics for Monday have yet to be refined and any rain or storms Monday morning could change the most favorable areas for severe storms Monday afternoon, so be sure to check the Weather MN blog and Bring Me The News for updates.