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Severe threat Tuesday: Tornadoes, large hail, strong winds possible in Twin Cities

The threat area includes the entire Twin Cities metro area.

With the exception of a couple of warnings Monday morning, severe weather didn't really materialize on Sunday or Monday in southern Minnesota, but there appears to be a better set-up for growling storms Tuesday afternoon. 

The National Weather Service (NWS) will be monitoring the potential for storm development in Iowa, with those storms maturing and moving into southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin during the afternoon and evening hours. 

"This set up will favor the potential for a few rotating storms capable of producing some tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds," the forecast discussion from the Twin Cities office of the NWS says. 

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The best chance for severe storms includes the core of the Twin Cities metro area, as Novak Weather has placed southern and parts of central Minnesota in the area of greatest risk. 

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Novak Weather's risk area matches up well with the risk area from the Storm Prediction Center. 

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"In addition, storms could be slow-moving, so isolated rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin," the weather service notes. 

Here's the simulated future radar from the HRRR model. It shows storms firing in central Iowa during the mid-afternoon and then moving northward as more storms develop in southern Minnesota. Based on this simulation, it could be a rocky dinner time in the metro area. 

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Here's a similar radar simulation from the NWS. 

"We’re NOT expecting an outbreak of severe weather or widespread flooding, but just wanted to give you a head’s up on the potential for later today, especially since it appears a few tornadoes are possible," says the NWS. 

We'll have an update on the severe weather situation with Novak Weather later today. Check back for updates. 

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