It could be a loud Monday night and early Tuesday across a large swath of Minnesota as severe storm potential exists.
According to the Storm Prediction Center (SPC), storms are expected to develop sometime in the afternoon or evening hours in North Dakota and grow upscale into a bowing line that'll move east-southeast into Minnesota. These storms will have the capability of dropping hail – perhaps very large hail in west-central Minnesota – and producing damaging winds.
Here's a look at the slight risk for severe weather currently in place for a massive section of Minnesota.
However, there appears to be potential for very large hail and higher chances for severe winds within the yellow-shaded area, specifically for the eastern Dakotas into west-central Minnesota, as evidenced in this map:
Again, as we said in Saturday's edition of the Weather MN blog, the areas that stand the best chance to get severe weather will be much better defined on Monday. In fact, it might not be until Monday midday or mid-afternoon before the most reliable severe zones are outlined.
Model guidance for this storm system varies. For example, the NAM 3KM model shows storms blasting through North Dakota all day Monday before dissipating as they arrive in west-central Minnesota. As that line of storms falls apart, widespread heavy rain develops in the northern half of the state.
The Euro model, however, keeps that line of storms from North Dakota going strong through the southern half of Minnesota.
Here's the aforementioned NAM 3KM model (GIF may not load in all broswers), reflective from 10 a.m. Monday through 10 a.m. Tuesday. Watch how a bowing line of storms moves through North Dakota before dying out in Minnesota. Those storms dying out is the big question.
At a minimum, widespread heavy rainfall with amounts in excessive of a half inch to an inch are expected throughout much of Minnesota.
We'll refine the severe weather threat in a Weather MN blog update Monday morning.