Severe weather: Strong tornadoes, very large hail possible in southern Minnesota

Some really nasty storms could develop around dinner time Tuesday.
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UPDATE 11:10 A.M. 

And here's the latest update from the Storm Prediction Center. Very few changes, if any at all. The Twin Cities remains on the edge of the enhanced risk area. Read more below for details on today's storm threats. 

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UPDATE 8 A.M. 

This is the latest severe weather risk from the Storm Prediction Center, which is slightly different from the map shown in the original blog posting. The orange area has the highest chance of seeing nasty storms. 

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Here's the rest of the details you need to know: 

A late-September severe weather event is appearing more and more likely Tuesday as a strong cold front is forecast to move through Minnesota. 

"Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind are all possible late this afternoon and evening across much of the area," says the National Weather Service in the Twin Cities. "The greatest threat, including for some strong tornadoes, will be from south central and southeast MN into WI. Hail larger than golf balls is also possible."

Minnesotans will experience cool, dry air in the morning but that will quickly change as moisture surges into the area, with dewpoints rising close to 70 by the afternoon. That will set the stage for explosive storm development during the afternoon and evening hours. 

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The weather service notes in the forecast discussion that 5-10 p.m. is the window of when storms could be the most potent in south-central and southeast Minnesota. 

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The Twins Cities metro area could get missed altogether, but any storms that do hit the metro area will be capable of very large hail, damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. The better threat, however, is in the enhanced risk (orange on the map above) in southeastern Minnesota. 

Computer models Tuesday morning suggest storms will develop around 5-6 p.m., with explosive development happening very close but possibly just south/east of the immediate metro area. Definitely pay attention to the weather later today. 

More details from the Storm Prediction Center: 

"Supercells with tornadoes will be possible to the northwest of the center of the low-level jet with the greatest potential across north-central Iowa and southeast Minnesota. A strong tornado or two may develop in this area during the late afternoon or early evening. In addition to tornadoes, large hail will be likely with supercells. The more dominant supercells may produce hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter, mainly from eastern Nebraska to western Wisconsin where the combination of instability and deep-layer shear is forecast to be maximized. Wind damage will also be possible with supercells and bowing line segments."

Check back around 12 p.m. today as Bring Me The News will be posting a Way Over Our Heads podcast that focuses on today's potential severe weather outbreak. 

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