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Sunny skies and high temps in the 50s will give southern Minnesota a gorgeous day Thursday, but skies could turn active Friday night and Saturday in parts of Minnesota. 

The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Minnesota in a slight risk for severe storms Friday, and a very small area of far southwestern Minnesota in an enhanced risk. The biggest threat with Friday's storms will be large hail. 

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There’s a lot of uncertainty in the forecast with upcoming thunderstorms and timing, according to Bring Me The News meteorologist Sven Sundgaard, who sees Friday night as a difficult setup for any significant storms to continue into Minnesota. If a couple do, they’d produce more of a hail threat. 

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If the European weather model's lightning forecast is accurate, it would indicate an intense line of storms firing Friday afternoon in Nebraska and moving northeast, possibly reaching Minnesota. Then another line forms Saturday.

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On Saturday the threat shifts and will be largely conditional based on the very simple premise of whether storms can develop. If they do develop, they could be severe and pose a threat for damaging winds, large hail and even tornadoes, according to the SPC.

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"There is a chance for thunderstorms again on Saturday, and a few storms could be strong to severe. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the timing and location of storms so please continue to monitor the forecast, especially if you have outdoor plans," says the Twin Cities office of the National Weather Service. 

But as the SPC notes, storms developing Saturday isn't a sure thing. Not even close, in fact. The weather service says "model output remains strongly suggestive" that a variety of elements will create a "considerable limiting factor to severe thunderstorm development."

Here's what the NAM 3KM models shows for Saturday: afternoon storms developing in western Minnesota and moving east. 

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The SPC notes in its Day 3 severe weather outlook that storms that form near the center of the low pressure system – which should be across the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota – could produce clusters of storms and supercells capable of producing tornadoes. 

There will be plenty of warmth Saturday with highs in the 70s and dew points in the 60s. Saturday dew points: 

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After a warm and humid Saturday, Minnesota is in for more below normal temps. Record lows are possible Monday through Wednesday, with temps possibly dropping below freezing. The daytime high Sunday will be in the 40s in the Twin Cities, and we might not get out of the 30s on Monday.

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